CBB Commentary Archive

The good, the bad & the ugly...

2017:
10/13/2017 Arms Race
10/06/2017 Kevin Warsh to Lead the Fed in a New Direction
09/29/2017 Just the Facts
09/22/2017 Q2 2017 Z.1 Report
09/15/2017 Monetary Disorder
09/01/2017 Strong Data and Conspicuous Bubble Excess
08/25/2017 Yellen in Jackson Hole
08/18/2017 Crisis of Confidence
08/11/2017 Doubled-Down
08/04/2017 Data and a Carefree Bond Market
07/28/2017 Five Years of Whatever it Takes
07/21/2017 New Age Mandate
07/14/2017 Yellen on Inflation
07/07/2017 Wonderful Monetary Policy and Beautiful Deleveragings
06/30/2017 The Road to Normalization
06/23/2017 Washington Finance and Bubble Illusion
06/16/2017 Peak Stimulus Has Passed
06/09/2017 Crowded Longs, Shorts and a New Z1
06/02/2017 Liquidity Trade
05/26/2017 Moody's Downgrades China
05/19/2017 Just the Facts - May 19
05/12/2017 The VIX and the Scheme
05/05/2017 Belly of the Beast
04/28/2017 Unsound Finance
04/21/2017 Liquidity Supernova and the Big Ugly Flaw
04/14/2017 "Risk Off" Making Some Headway
04/07/2017 Just the Facts - April 7
03/31/2017 Q1: Sure Bets That Weren't
03/24/2017 Discussion on the Fed Put
03/17/2017 Another Missed Opportunity
03/10/2017 Unparalleled Credit and Global Yields
03/03/2017 Reality vs. The Neutral Rate
02/24/2017 Risk On/Risk Off Face-off
02/17/2017 China Credit and Global Inflationary Dynamics
02/10/2017 Bubbles, Money and the VIX
02/03/2017 The Wrath
01/27/2017 A Dubious Monetary Backdrop
01/20/2017 Just the Facts
01/13/2017 Off to an Interesting Start
01/06/2017 Just the Facts 

2016:
12/30/2016 2016 Year in Review
12/09/2016 Renzi Falls, Market Rise
12/02/2016 Trump, Bonds, Peripheries, China and Italy
11/25/2016 Revisiting the Global Savings Glut Thesis
11/18/2016 As Exciting as the 1930s
11/11/2016 What a Week
11/04/2016 The Upshot of Inflationism
10/28/2016 Peak Monetary Stimulus
10/21/2016 The Latest on China's Mortgage Finance Bubble
10/14/2016 The Perils of a Resurgent China Credit Boom
10/07/2016 Matthew, Near Misses and Flash Crashes
09/30/2016 A Take on Deutsche Bank
09/23/2016 Like Old Times: Q2 2016 Flow of Funds
09/16/2016 Risk Off, the BOJ and China
09/09/2016 Reversals
09/02/2016 Just the Facts
08/25/2016 Yellen Unveiling, Jackson Hole 2016
08/19/2016 The "Neutral Rate"
08/12/2016 Inflation
08/05/2016 Updating Government Finance Quasi-Capitalism
07/29/2016 Bubble Battles
07/22/2016 Don't Mess with Turkey
07/15/2016 Scary Time
07/08/2016 Sovereign Market Dislocation and Derivatives Turmoil
07/01/2016 Greenspan on Bubbles
06/24/2016 Majority Mad as Hell
06/17/2016 Reminiscing about 2012
06/10/2016 Historic Crazy
06/03/2016 Monkey with Money at Your Own Peril
05/27/2016 Just the Facts
05/20/2016 Unambiguous Signals Disregarded
05/13/2016 Ominous Portents
05/06/2016 Inflection Point for EM
04/29/2016 The Red Line
04/22/2016 More on China
04/15/2016 Pushing Desperate Measures Too Far
04/08/2016 Bubble Economy or Not?
04/01/2016 Another Coin in the Fuse Box
03/25/2016 All is Not Well
03/18/2016 Q4 2015 Flow of Funds
03/11/2016 Thesis Update
03/08/2016 Just the Facts
02/26/2016 Just the Facts
02/19/2016 Crisis Management
02/12/2016 The Global Bubble
02/05/2016 The Adjustment Cycle
01/29/2016 About Resuscitation and Reinstatement
01/22/2016 Draghi Ready to Fight
01/15/2016 Cracks at the Core of the Core
01/08/2016 Issues 2016

2015:
01/01/2016 2015 Year in Review
12/18/2015 Plausible Bubbles Abound
12/11/2015 The Precipice
12/04/2015 The Cult of Draghi
11/20/2015 Monetary Fiasco
11/13/2015 Risk Off?
11/06/2015 Irreversibly Broken and Dysfunctional
10/30/2015 Developing or Developed?
10/23/2015 Hobson's Choice
10/16/2015 Look Back in Anger
10/09/2015 Courage to Print
10/02/2015 Party Crashing
09/25/2015 New World Disorder
09/18/2015 Now What?
09/11/2015 China Hardens Peg and Brazil Goes to Junk
09/04/2015 The Unwind
08/28/2015 "Carry Trades" and Trend-Following Strategies
08/21/2015 It's Always Worse Than You Think
08/14/2015 China
08/07/2015 Core of the Core
07/31/2015 Money and Spheres
07/24/2015 Same Old Same Old
07/17/2015 Lessons of 2004
07/10/2015 Broken
07/03/2015 The Triad
06/19/2015 Coming Home
06/05/2015 Just the Facts
05/15/2015 Out of Thin Air
05/15/2015 Paying for the Past: Insight from Lindsey, Fisher and Greenspan
05/15/2015 Today's New Paradigm
05/08/2015 "The End is Near!"
05/01/2015 Quasi-Capitalism and Crowded Trades
04/24/2015 Pro-Bubble
04/17/2015 Horrible Risk Versus Reward
04/10/2015 A Tale of Two Entangled Super Bubbles
03/27/2015 A Progressively Maladjusted “Economic Sphere”
03/20/2015 True Ultra-Dovishness
03/13/2015 EM Contagion & A New Z.1
03/06/2015 King Dollar Tipping Point
02/27/2015 Periphery Fragility List
02/20/2015 The Curse of Moneyness
02/13/2015 Store of Value
02/06/2015 "What Happened to Deleveraging?"
01/30/2015 Dangerous Games of Chicken
01/23/2015 Draghi's Do Whatever it Takes Beat Estimates

2014:
12/12/2014 The Collapsing Periphery 
12/05/2014 The Unavoidable Peril of Financial Sphere Bubbles 
11/07/2014 Back to the Nineties 
10/31/2014 Kuroda, Bubbles and King Dollar 
10/24/2014 More Wackoism
10/17/2014 The Downside of Do Whatever it Takes
09/26/2014 What We Know
09/19/2014 Only For Wonks
09/12/2014 King Dollar and the Peripheries
07/25/2014 Bubbles & Schemes
07/11/2014 2014 vs. 2007
11/01/2013 The May.June Dynamic
10/18/2013 Terminal Phases
10/04/2013 Night and Day
09/27/2013 Z1 and the Doves
07/19/2013 Inflationphobia
07/12/2013 Bernanke's Comment
02/01/2013 Late 90s Like
01/25/2013 Liquidity Bubble
01/18/2013 How Crazy
01/04/2013 Issues 2013

2012:
12/28/2012 2012 in Review
12/21/2012 Recalling John Law
12/14/2012 Hotel California
11/06/2012 When Money Dies
10/05/2012 You Can Intimidate Everyone
09/28/2012 It's all Greek to Me
09/14/2012 QE Forever
08/31/2012 Risk #3
08/03/2012 Think Grand Canyon
07/27/2012 Monetary Madness
07/20/2012 Risk On Risk Off and the Spanish_Chinese Tug of War
06/08/2012 Pavlovian
05/18/2012 The Jig is Up
04/13/2012 All Eyes on Spain
04/06/2012 Cracks in Europe
03/09/2012 Now, Sterilized QE
02/17/2012 A New Bull Market
02/03/2012 Price Instability
01/06/2012 Issues 2012

2011:
12/30/2011 2011 in Review
12/16/2011 Target 2
11/25/2011 Global Contagion
11/18/2011 ECB to the Rescue
10/21/2011 Mortgage Madness
10/14/2011 Ring-Fencing
10/07/2011 Tuesday
09/30/2011 Testing a Thesis
09/16/2011 Delta One
09/09/2011 Crumbling Pillars
08/19/2011 The PhD Standard
07/29/2011 More on Moneyness
06/24/2011 Red Alert
06/17/2011 Lehman Moment
05/13/2011 Just the Facts
04/01/2011 Q1 and QE2
02/11/2011 No Exits
02/04/2011 Just the Facts
01/14/2011 Issues 2011
01/07/2011 Just the Facts

2010:
12/31/2010 Year in Review
12/24/2010 Just the Facts
12/10/2010 The Fed and Money
12/03/2010 Kicking the Can
11/05/2010 QE2
10/29/2010 Just the Facts
10/01/2010 Just the Facts
09/24/2010 2Q 2010 Flow of Funds
08/20/2010 Let's Change the Debate
08/13/2010 So Much for the Exit Strategy
08/06/2010 2010 vs. 2007
07/09/2010 A Scenario
06/25/2010 Bond Bubble
05/21/2010 Just the Facts
04/16/2010 It is about Trust
04/09/2010 Money Good
04/02/2010 Just the Facts
01/22/2010 The Volcker Rule
01/08/2010 Issues 2010

2009:
12/26/2009 Mostly Facts
12/18/2009 Just the Facts
11/27/2009 Dubai Watch
11/13/2009 Just the Facts
10/23/2009 Mortgage Madness
10/09/2009 Dollar Dilemma
09/25/2009 From Bear to Bear
09/04/2009 No Exit
07/24/2009 Tug-of-War
06/26/2009 It is Economic
05/01/2009 The Greatest Cost
04/24/2009 Reflation Watch
04/10/2009 Just the Facts
04/03/2009 Periphery Rising
02/20/2009 Surreal
01/16/2009 A Divergence
01/09/2009 Just the Facts
01/02/2009 Year-end Facts

2008:
12/19/2008 Q3 2008 Flow of Funds
11/28/2008 Just the Facts
11/21/2008 Just the Facts...
11/07/2008 Debt Trap
09/06/2008 Just the Facts
12/28/2007 2007 Wrap Up
11/29/2007 Tight 'Money'
11/22/2007 No Regrets
11/14/2007 Credit Crunch
10/31/2007 Road to Ruin
10/17/2007 Respite's Over
08/31/2007 Just the Facts
08/16/2007 Fed to the Rescue
07/05/2007 Monopoly
05/21/2007 Special Bulletin
05/03/2007 Then and Now
04/26/2007 Unique
04/19/2007 Financial Earnings
04/12/2007 More Minsky
04/05/2007 'Vintage 2007'
03/29/2007 Q1 Global Liquidity Watch
03/02/2007 The Confluence
02/23/2007 Indictments
02/09/2007 Subprime in Focus
01/12/2007 Nominal GDP
01/05/2007 Issues 2007

2006:
12/29/2006 2006 Wrap-Up
12/01/2006 The Big Wildcard
11/24/2006 Just the Facts
09/07/2006 Income Inflation
08/31/2006 Just the facts
08/03/2006 The Pause
06/29/2006 Reality Check
05/11/2006 Reasons
05/04/2006 Money Analysis
04/27/2006 Time to pause
04/13/2006 The 'Holy Grail'
02/24/2006 Just the Facts
02/10/2006 Blow-off Analysis
01/20/2006 Welcome to 2006
01/06/2006 Issues 2006

2005:
12/30/2005 2005 Wrap-Up
10/06/2005 Sphere Analysis
07/28/2005 Just the Facts II
07/21/2005 Just the Facts
07/07/2005 The Flow of Finance
06/30/2005 Macro Confusion
06/23/2005 Thinking Minsky
05/26/2005 The 'Neutral Rate'
05/19/2005 Conundrums
05/12/2005 Topic de Jour
04/07/2005 The Fed's Dilemma
01/28/2005 The Great Dilemma
01/21/2005 Inflationist Watch
01/07/2005 Issues 2005

2004:
12/31/2004 Year in Review. Reflation to Gross Over-Liquefication
11/19/2004 Greenspan Watch
11/12/2004 Monetary Disorder
10/28/2004 Easy Liquidity
10/06/2004 Sphere Analysis
07/08/2004 Outside the Box
06/10/2004 Lying in Wait
04/15/2004 Tightening Lite
02/06/2004 The Pay Option Arm
01/09/2004 Issues 2004

2003:
12/19/2003 No Inflating Out of this Quagmire
11/21/2003 It's Here
10/16/2003 BofA Rings Fannie
10/02/2003 Tipping Point
09/25/2003 The Powerful Force
09/18/2003 'Let it Rip'
08/07/2003 The Post-Boom Boom
07/31/2003 Lost Control
06/05/2003 Crazy Horse
05/29/2003 The New New Game
04/24/2003 Reliquefication
04/10/2003 The Reasons
03/28/2003 Off Topic
02/14/2003 Blow off Week #34
02/07/2003 Scenario #3
01/17/2003 If Only...
01/03/2003 Issues 2003

2002:
07/25/2002 Structured Finance in the Crosshairs
06/13/2002 A Few More Years
05/16/2002 Food for Thought
05/09/2002 Unstable markets
03/15/2002 Random Thoughts
02/22/2002 The Clan of Seven
01/11/2002 Harry E. Miller
01/04/2002 Issues 2002

2001:
12/28/2001 Financial Arbitrage Capitalism
11/30/2001 The 'Great' Debate
11/23/2001 Edward Stone Shaw
11/16/2001 Hitting the Wall
11/02/2001 Hero Turns Spoiler-Or, Mcteer 'Getting Nothing'
10/25/2001 Allyn Abbott Young
08/02/2001 Superior Bank
07/26/2001 End of an Era
07/19/2001 CDO Trouble
05/31/2001 Risky Business
05/10/2001 The Unraveling
05/03/2001 The Power of Money
04/12/2001 Reality Check
02/02/2001 We Know His Enemy

2000:
12/29/2000 Crisis Management Reliquefication
12/22/2000 To The Brink
12/02/2000 To The Brink
10/26/2000 Mehrling on Minsky
10/19/2000 Here We Go Again...
10/12/2000 Liquidity